Will ZTE be able to help Huawei in the United States?

On the evening of April 16th, a news that ZTE was blocked in the United States detonated the industry: The US Department of Commerce announced that it prohibits US companies from selling any component parts to ZTE for 7 years! Although the story has started since 2015, there have been continuous and relevant news on the 2016 and 2017 pages, but this time in 2018, it is obviously even more fierce! At the critical period of the Sino-US trade war, ZTE's ban on the United States has attracted wide attention from all walks of life. The current incident is still continuing to ferment!

It is understood that the formation of this ban was mainly due to the fact that the U.S. Department of Commerce officials found that ZTE had false statements and did not punish according to the previous penalty agreement. There is no doubt that after ZTE punished 892 million U.S. dollars last year, it was sanctioned by the U.S. ban. This is a huge blow to ZTE. How will ZTE be affected? Do you have a helping hand? How will the incident be solved? OFweek Electronic Engineering Network Xiaobian and you take a closer look!

Affected by

In March 2017, ZTE chose to punish and replace the management team. Under the leadership of the new chairman, ZTE has achieved very good results in the past 2017. According to data from the annual report of ZTE Corporation, revenue of 108.8 billion yuan was realized in 2017, an increase of 7.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 293.8%.

Such excellent results were mainly attributed to the good growth of ZTE’s three major businesses, including ZTE’s base station business growth of 8.32%, the highest growth rate in the industry, and ZTE’s smart phones successfully entering the United States. Market, market share ranked fourth in the United States.

However, this prohibition of falling from the sky will have a great impact on ZTE's entire industry chain. The 7-year limitation period will directly make people desperate! Because ZTE's RRU transmit/receive chips, high-end optical communication chips, and smart phone chips for base stations all rely heavily on US imports. If you leave these chips imported from the United States, ZTE cannot find completely replaced chips and solutions, and its business operations will certainly be paralyzed. The development of other businesses will also be difficult.

Although ZTE has also increased its efforts in research and development of chips in recent years, progress has been slow. This is why, in the face of a sky-high fine of 892 million U.S. dollars, ZTE chose to endure punishment and punish punishments last year. It is necessary to know that from 2010 to 2016, ZTE's total profit was only 7.317 billion yuan!

In addition, the impact of this ban on the construction of the operator's network will inevitably slow the pace of ZTE's 5G technology research and development. According to ZTE's current leading technology in the 5G field, this will also affect the speed of future 5G technology development. With the ZTE and Qualcomm 5G pilot plans, plans for large-scale procurement of Qualcomm's 5G components will also be disqualified as the ban takes effect.

Friends of the Chamber of Commerce to help?

ZTE's reorganization in mobile phone business and its natural advantages in cooperation with US operators have achieved certain results in the US mobile phone market. In the face of domestic launch of the AXON series of high-end mobile phones, but most of the current ZTE high-end series of mobile phones are Qualcomm processors, it is clear that the ban will allow ZTE's terminal department to be caught off guard!

If there is a low-end mobile phone processor, there are many alternative products on the market. However, ZTE's AXON series is taking the high-end route, and it is basically using Qualcomm's strongest mobile phone chips. The unlicensed ZTE flagship AXON9 uses the Qualcomm Snapdragon 845 processor, and this ban could make AXON9 dead belly stillborn.

In this dilemma, finding other mobile phone chips to replace Qualcomm is a solution, but there are not many processors on the market and Qualcomm Xiaolong 845 is at one level, and Apple has to use it for itself, and it is also limited. Samsung does not want to use it. What about Huawei Unicorn? After all, they are friendly businessmen and they are all their own brothers. When difficulties arise, they must always help each other. Will Huawei Unicorn provide a helping hand? the answer is negative.

Starting from the Kirin 950, Huawei's self-developed chips have been well received by the industry. The Kirin 960 and 970 have become Huawei's vanguards against Apple and Qualcomm for years! In the face of such a difficult situation for its affiliates, why did Huawei not help? Huawei Kirin also has its own hidden words!

1, limited capacity

Huawei Kirin chips are produced by TSMC, while Apple and MediaTek are customers of TSMC. Relatively speaking, Huawei Kirin is considered a relatively small customer, and the production capacity of TSMC is definitely to give priority to large customers, so there are no redundant processors for other mobile phone manufacturers.

2. Differentiation of market competition

Like Apple, public psychology thinks that something unique will be better. Huawei’s rotation chairman Xu Zhijun said in an interview that Huawei’s self-developed chip is only positioned to widen its own product differentiation with its friends, and to enhance the competitiveness of its own brand, so it will not be sold out!

3, willing to sell may not necessarily buy

Qualcomm, as a top player in mobile phone processors, has certain advantages over Huawei Hass. Many mobile phone manufacturers are also more optimistic about the reliability and patents of Qualcomm processor with fewer disputes. When other mobile phone manufacturers use Huawei unicorn processors, they are bound to worry about the disclosure of their trade secrets. After all, Huawei is also a strong competitor. And Qualcomm does not produce mobile phones, mobile phone manufacturers will not ignore this when choosing processors!

Therefore, if ZTE finally did not really co-operate with the United States, Huawei's Kirin must be able to help!

Solution guess

1. ZTE and the United States break the knife

Based on the degree of demand for U.S. parts and components in the three major businesses of ZTE, the possibility of this conjecture becoming a reality is basically zero. If the ban is strictly implemented, in less than a month, ZTE’s communications equipment and mobile phone business will become chaotic because ZTE’s business needs only some components that the United States can provide, and ZTE will completely collapse. !

2. ZTE negotiates with the U.S. to accept a bigger ticket

There is a certain possibility of this kind of conjecture, but ZTE may not be able to afford it. The $892 million that was paid last year can be said to have hurt ZTE, but don't forget that there are still 300 million U.S. dollars in suspension. If ZTE wants to negotiate and resolve through its own channels, it is estimated that it will cost less than one billion US dollars, and even if this problem is solved, the cost will be too great!

3. Accept the penalty within a reasonable range through diplomatic channels

This is undoubtedly the most likely solution. Last year, ZTE and the United States had the participation of diplomatic means for the first time to reach a settlement. After experiencing another "distrust", ZTE looks like this road can only go. Before the official opening of the Sino-U.S. trade war, the U.S. attempted to occupy the initiative through the handle of ZTE was clearly exposed, but we could not do anything about it. Specifically how to punish, how much the penalty, have to look at how many chips!

China's "core" to be self-discipline

Judging from the results, the action taken by the United States against ZTE is undoubtedly fatal and devastating. However, ZTE is not the only one injured. The US chip factory also suffered varying degrees of losses. It can be said that the U.S. ban on ZTE's ban has not been a winner. By nature, this fully reflects the importance of a company's compliance with laws when conducting business activities, regardless of the country's laws, which is also the price to be paid after violating commercial standards.

From an objective point of view, the current China "core" is still too weak, even if outstanding, such as Huawei's unicorn processor, did not achieve full independent R & D. So that "Gate of Life" is being held by others, can it be passively beaten? If you are behind, you must beat and you must think about progress. China has already emerged a number of companies that are brave enough to try and dare to innovate, such as Huawei Hass, Xiaomi's pinecone, Spreadtrum, and Ziguang, but they are currently influential in the market. There are not many companies in the industry. The author sincerely hopes that the domestic chip design manufacturers can be inspired by the embargo of ZTE and take a higher level in chip design to realize the independence and control of the chip as soon as possible, and to control the “Gate of Life” in their own hands!

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