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It is estimated that by 2018, the area of ​​semiconductor materials for LEDs will increase to four times that of 2012, and the revenue will reach a peak of $17 billion. Although the sales volume will reach its peak around 2019, it will be affected by the following two factors, and then it is estimated to gradually reduce. First, because the amount of light emitted by a single LED is greatly increased, the number of LEDs required is reduced. Secondly, compared with the current technology, LED product life is greatly extended, it is not necessary to replace the lamp once or twice a year, and it can be replaced once in 10 years. This will cause the market for replacement LEDs to decelerate substantially and permanently.
Over-investment before 2011
In the next five years or so, LED production will continue to expand, so why is the production equipment market rebounding? This is because of large-scale over-investment in 2010 and 2011. The main reason is that the Chinese government grants subsidies to MOCVD equipment, and companies are doing their best to ensure market position. As of 2010, only a few Chinese companies have been involved in the field of LED production equipment, but now it has increased to 70. But most companies are probably short-lived, and the companies that survived are not expected to buy new equipment, but increase production capacity through failed acquisitions.
In the past, the LED industry has been slightly modified according to the requirements of LEDs, and the standard exposure equipment and etching equipment have been modified and re-installed. In 2009, with the assistance of LED companies that used the same equipment for different processes, the professional equipment for producing LEDs debuted. Interestingly, the old semiconductor equipment companies have not entered this market.
In order to reduce the cost of equipment (COO) when purchasing production equipment, some companies invest in high-performance equipment with high reliability and uniformity. On the other hand, there are also companies that intend to reduce equipment investment and minimize manufacturing costs by purchasing the cheapest equipment. But from now on, most companies (including most Chinese companies) have begun to choose the former.
The popularity of PSS has increased the demand for plasma equipment
The market for other equipment is the same as the MOCVD equipment market where supply and demand differ, and sales in 2012 were lower than in 2010 and 2011. However, the field of technological change leading LED design presents a different trend. Brightness can be improved by using a patterned sapphire substrate (PSS: Patterned Sapphire Substrate). In just over a year, PSS has accounted for nearly 80% of the world's LED sapphire substrates, creating a need for plasma equipment for etching PSS wafers. At present, there are about 280 dry etching equipments for PSS that have been put into use, and 200 of them are installed in 2011 or 2012. The 2012 estimate is also expected to remain at this level.
Currently, there are three types of companies that increase PSS production capacity. The first is the sapphire substrate manufacturer; the second is the purchase of standard wafers, self-PSS LED manufacturers; the third is the purchase of substrates, the formation of the pattern after the sale of professional PSS business.
Plasma etching processes the photoresist layer after patterning on the substrate, thus creating the need for tools and steppers for mask positioning. However, the mask positioning tool is difficult to achieve the resolution required by PSS. Although the resolution of the stepper can meet the requirements, there is a problem in patterning the wafer size without causing cracks or cracks. Taking a 50mm wafer as an example, the yield of PSS manufacturing is usually 80 to 93%, but for a 100mm wafer, the yield is only 40 to 70%. In the next six months, the emergence of various commercial solutions, including “nanoimprint transferâ€, is expected to increase the yield of large-diameter wafers and reduce the cost of PSS.
In order to be successful, LEDs must reduce costs. In addition, they must improve performance and uniformity, so that LED production can move along the traditional semiconductor ideas and increase the attention to detail. To achieve scale advantages, evolution is required with a higher degree of automation, production management software, statistical engineering management, and a "box-to-box" system.
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Over-investment in LED production equipment market peaked?
Nowadays, LEDs are not yet popular in general lighting applications, but it is expected that by 2018, more than 50% of the lamp holders will support LEDs, and more than 80% of the lamps sold on the market will be LED lamps. However, the current market for LED production equipment used in processing has not reached the scale of the previous two years. Compared with the $1.9 billion in 2010 and the $1.7 billion market in 2011, the size of 2012 was only $600 million. These companies will invest in the second half of 2013, and by 2014, the LED production equipment industry will achieve significant (but limited) growth. But this will also be the final large-scale investment in the LED industry. After that, the size of the market will continue to shrink, becoming a market that is basically maintained by exchange (replacement) demand.