BP World Energy Outlook: Energy competition is fierce and China will become the biggest beneficiary

Recently, the Chinese version of "BP World Energy Outlook (2018 Edition)" (hereinafter referred to as "Outlook") was released in Beijing. "Outlook" pointed out that by 2040, the global energy structure will show the most diversified trend, with oil, natural gas, coal, and non-fossil fuel each occupying 1/4. Dai Sipan, chief economist of BP Group, believes that with the diversified development of energy, energy competition will become increasingly fierce and beneficial to energy consumers. For example, China will become the biggest beneficiary.

"Outlook" sets a similar "gradual transition" scenario based on current policies, technologies, and social development. Under this scenario, oil demand continues to grow and tends to stabilize in the final years; natural gas demand growth is strong, surpassing coal to become No. 1. The two major sources of energy, together with oil, occupy half of the world's energy.

As the renewable energy subsidy system was gradually phased out in the mid-2020s, renewable energy became increasingly competitive and became the fastest growing energy source. By 2040, renewable energy increased by more than 400%, accounting for global power generation growth. above 50. Among them, China is the largest source of growth, and the growth will exceed the total of OECD countries.

"Outlook" believes that by 2040, the total number of electric vehicles will exceed 300 million, accounting for only about 15% of global vehicle ownership. However, taking into account the intensity of the use of electric vehicles, the share of driving kilometers will exceed 30%. However, "Outlook" believes that the impact of electric vehicles on oil demand and carbon emissions is limited.

“Outlook” predicts that China will achieve carbon emission peaks around 2026, and the renewable energy in the energy structure will expand rapidly. It will climb from 3% in 2016 to 18% in 2040, accounting for 31% of global renewable energy resources. . By the early 1930s, India will surpass China to become the world’s fastest growing energy market. By 2040 or so, Africa’s contribution to global demand growth will also be higher than China’s.

Dai Deli, chief executive officer of BP Group, said that relying solely on policies that target certain energy resources will only lead to difficulties and that carbon pricing must be used as a key factor to motivate all parties to work together.

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