Due to the vigorous development of local and multinational companies, China has now become the world's largest market for vehicles and travel services. From 2007 to 2017, the Chinese market grew at an annual rate of 16%, and its share in the global passenger car market also increased from 9% in 2007 to 30% in 2017. A recent study released by McKinsey, a global management consulting firm, shows that China is likely to become the world's largest auto-driving market in the future. By 2030, new auto sales related car sales and travel services will generate more than 500 billion US dollars. The Beijing McKinsey Future Travel Research Center (MCFM) was also established recently. MCFM is a think tank and consultant for the travel industry. Based on McKinsey and the extensive expert network of travel ecosystems, MCFM aims to provide a unique perspective on the industry's future and innovative customer service. MCFM has four centers in Detroit, Munich, Silicon Valley and Beijing. The report elaborates on the ten major insights shaping the development of China’s automated driving market: Insight 1: If automated driving technology can be realized, it will bring huge economic and customer value. Autopilot will increase personal safety factor and reduce accidents by more than 90%. On average, the autopilot can save the driver 50 minutes per day. Autopilot helps people who do not drive (such as disabled people and the elderly) to travel autonomously. Compared to renting or buying a car, the new travel mode brought by automatic driving can reduce the cost per kilometer. Due to the reduction in accidents, traffic jams and medical expenses are also reduced accordingly. Insight 2: If auto-driving takes root in China, the prospects will be very broad. By 2030, autonomous driving will account for approximately 13% of the total passenger mileage (PKMT) and will reach approximately 66% by 2040. By 2030, auto-driving passenger vehicles will reach about 8 million vehicles; by 2040, it will reach about 13.5 million vehicles. By 2030, total sales of self-driving cars will reach approximately US$230 billion, and by 2040 will reach approximately US$360 billion. By 2030, orders for travel services based on autonomous driving will reach approximately US$260 billion, and by 2040 will reach approximately US$940 billion. Insight 3: The digitization of cars is conducive to cost reductions, making it easier to implement large-scale promotion of autonomous driving. McKinsey predicts that 2025-2027 will be the turning point for autonomous driving. Based on the estimation of the cost curve of the underlying technology of autopilot, this will be the economic parity point of autopilot and manpower driving. In other words, the total cost per kilometer of autonomous driving will be roughly equal to the cost of driving a conventional car. After this inflection point, the demand for autonomous driving in the market will increase steadily. Insight 4: The promotion of autonomous driving will increase at the same time as travel services. China is rapidly promoting travel services. Vehicles used for travel services currently account for about 10% of China's total car sales. Private cars still dominate. At present, 90% of PKMTs come from private passenger vehicles, while the rest come from other travel services such as taxis and vehicle sharing. McKinsey predicts that by 2030, self-driving vehicles deployed by travel service providers will account for 11% of PKMTs, and privately owned autonomous vehicles will account for 2%. By 2040, travel service providers will account for up to 55% of PKMT and privately-owned autopilot vehicles will only account for 11%. Insight 5: Chinese consumers have a strong interest in autonomous driving. A recent McKinsey survey found that 49% of Chinese consumers believe that fully automated driving is “very important†and 49% of Chinese consumers believe it “dispensableâ€. This result contrasts sharply with consumers in Germany and the United States: Only 16% of German and U.S. consumers believe that fully automated driving is “very important†and that 53% of German and U.S. consumers consider it “dispensableâ€. Chinese consumers are willing to pay a premium of up to 4,600 U.S. dollars for the purchase of self-driving vehicles, compared with 3,900 U.S. dollars and 2,900 U.S. dollars for the United States and Germany respectively. Insight 6: There is a long way to go to achieve automatic driving. The high cost of the autopilot system and the lack of attractiveness in the economy are the biggest bottlenecks affecting its development. McKinsey conducted a survey on travel experts in this field. Only 27% of the respondents believe that the cost problem can be solved by 2025; another 37% believe that the solution can be resolved between 2025 and 2030; 20% believe it will be at 2030. Resolved between 2034; 17% believe it will be resolved after 2035. Reliability and safety are another major bottleneck in the promotion of autonomous driving technology. Only 30% of respondents believe that the problem can be solved by 2025; 33% believe that it can be resolved between 2025 and 2029; 36% believe that it will not be resolved until after 2030. Insight 7: Industry game rules will change with the realization of automatic driving. Up to now, the development of traditional Auto Parts and the design and brand of automobiles are the focus of attention of automakers. But in the future, when autopilot dominates, a whole new set of technologies and new skills will be crucial. According to our survey of travel industry experts, they believe that the three most important capabilities in the future auto-pilot value chain are automated driving software development, auto-driving hardware production, and autopilot system integration. Insight 8: The business model will change with the realization of automatic driving. The business-to-consumer (B2C) business model dominates the Chinese automotive market, with 89% of cars sold directly to consumers and only 11% of cars sold to B2B fleet operators. Automatic driving will change this situation. McKinsey predicts that sales of traditional, nonautonomous vehicles for fleet operators will increase to 23% by 2030, and sales of self-driving vehicles for fleets will increase to 16%. Insight 9: China's autonomous driving environment is more complicated than in other parts of the world...but usually it requires the same technology. Although it takes an additional 2-3 years to apply software algorithms to the traffic environment in China, the underlying technologies required to deploy autonomous driving in China are basically the same as those in other countries around the world. Technologies including sensors, computing platforms, motion planning and control, and object analysis are likely to continue to be dominated by international technology giants. And more technologies related to local requirements such as data cloud, map and location services, and connectivity capabilities require a comprehensive localization solution or a hybrid solution that integrates both local and global technologies. Insight 10: In China, a lot of capital, expectations, and propaganda are emerging around autopilot (and many start-up companies). At present, a large number of Chinese companies are embarking on the development of the core components of the autonomous driving technology architecture, including laser radar, cameras, processors, software, and map/location-based services. Between 2012 and 2017, about 7 billion U.S. dollars worth of venture capital were invested in China's autonomous driving technology companies, which is equivalent to the amount invested in U.S. start-up companies in the same period. China’s average transaction size is 72 million U.S. dollars, which is twice the average deal size in the United States. The global managing partner of McKinsey Shanghai Branch and one of the authors of this report Wu heard: "The current indicators show that autonomous driving has a unique advantage in China. Compared with consumers in other countries, Chinese consumers are considering Buying self-driving vehicles, especially in the high-end market. In fact, compared with other countries' consumers, Chinese car buyers pay special attention to the performance of autonomous vehicles." Christopher Thomas, a global managing partner and author of this report at McKinsey's Beijing office, said: "The auto manufacturers, high-tech companies and travel service providers in the Chinese market seem to think that the auto-pilot phenomenon is a decade or two later. , delaying the positioning strategy may result in loss of influence and freedom.The company should now take action in the following areas: deciding areas for participation; developing a roadmap for access to technology architecture; determining appropriate alliance and ecosystem strategies; and developing strategic agility, Update their methods when new data appears on the market." Wang Ping, a global managing partner of McKinsey Shanghai Branch and one of the authors of this report, said: “We believe that in the process of developing autonomous driving in China, local companies and multinational companies will strike a balance, even though local players are increasingly competitive. Enhanced, but multinational companies will continue to play an important role in the market because consumers will still choose to buy cars produced by international vehicle manufacturers." Valve accessories include: Pump Valve Precision Parts,Silica Sol Casting Pum Parts,Investment Casting Marine Pump Parts,Silica Sol Casting Marine Pump Parts Tianhui Machine Co.,Ltd , https://www.thcastings.com
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